A strategic analysis group, Wikistrat,
which describes itself as ‘the world's first massively multiplayer online
consultancy”, recently ran a crowd-sourced simulation called “When China’s
Carrier Enters the Persian Gulf”. For the
simulation four possible ‘pathways’ were mapped based on different projections
of geopolitical developments. Some of the conclusions drawn include:
“It is quite possible that, when the day
finally arrives and China’s
carrier enters the Persian Gulf, it will matter far more to India than to America.
Plenty of experts within the U.S. national
security community see good reason to encourage China and the PLAN toward
blue-water capabilities, believing that path will exhaust Chinese military
spending and push the Chinese people to question devoting so many resources to
distant responsibilities. Imperial overstretch works the same everywhere.
The most clever Chinese policy option would
be to multilateralize any naval extension it makes in the direction of the Persian Gulf. China’s
growing dependence on the region is matched by that of East
Asia as a whole.”
According to the
consultancy group, this scenario could feasibly play out between 2025-2030. The
full report is available here.
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